Mathematical models of economics differ from reality

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AgriteQ 2021-03-02T12:20:02+00:00
The dynamic equilibrium underlying traditional economic models is defined as a moving point at which the mass of goods produced meets consumer demand. In general theoretical terms, the concept of equilibrium is captivating in its simplicity. For example, it assumes that an increase in prices leads to a drop in demand, and this, in turn, contributes to lower prices. Under the influence of these balancing forces, the state of the system as a whole is stabilized.


Nevertheless, despite the fact that economists have complicated the mathematical methods used, the models they have developed differ from reality. Within the framework of equilibrium theory, economists have to take into account continuous and irregular fluctuations in the economy, in particular such as the stock market turmoil in 1987. Contrary to theory, technology often leads to a widening, rather than narrowing, gap between rich and poor countries. In addition, although economists can mathematically prove the existence of an equilibrium point, it is often impossible to calculate its exact position. From a philosophical point of view, such complexity leads to a dead end situation. Indeed, if economists cannot find a solution to the problem, then how can consumers and producers succeed? And yet, according to Arrow, despite numerous attempts, no one has yet succeeded in offering any other more consistent and integral solution instead of the concepts of equilibrium.


Scientists who took part in the Santa Fe conference are now criticizing the emerging economy model developed there. In our constantly changing world with an unpredictable future, its inhabitants, in an effort to survive, change their behavior every day, trying to adapt to the environment. At the same time, equilibrium models are based on the assumption that consumers and producers act optimally all the time in accordance with their own assessment of the situation. The co-existing parties are gradually adapting to the changing external conditions, while simultaneously having the opposite effect on it.


The experts intend to test their idea using machine learning theories that were developed by J. Holland, a computer scientist at the University of Michigan. His system of "classifiers" will simulate in miniature a stock exchange, where "agents" (a set of rules) interact, carrying out the purchase and sale of shares. The classifier generates new rules by combining successful rules and excluding those that do not lead to success. This method of calculation is called a genetic algorithm. Holland and Arthur will determine which rules, under different conditions, produce the necessary results. "We hope to show that based on the simplest rules, the market will be able to organize itself into a very complex psychological system," Arthur says. Such results will demonstrate that the dynamics of the stock price reflects not only financial parameters, such as interest rates and dividends. This conclusion may not surprise many stockbrokers, but it indicates a departure from traditional economic theory. If you are uncertain, it is advisable to use the bonus code to ensure that you can take advantage of these offers. Our dedicated team will ensure that you stay informed about the most up-to-date promotions and will notify you when and where a code is necessary. For now, let us concentrate on how you can obtain the latest sign-up bonus. melbet bonus code of 130€/$ for sports betting. Every new player will receive from Melbet: a welcome bonus of 130$, as well as a lifelong free bet of 30$ and 130% on every account replenishment.
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